The Wire
Ten-Year Record on Employment: Does the Reality Match the Promises or Claims?
GOI efforts to spin a jobs growth narrative has meant the following: it is not willing to recognise a glaring problem, and hence no concrete efforts are needed to change economic policy to make the growth pattern more labour-intensive.
This article is part of The Wire‘s ‘India Black Boxed’ series. Read it here: Introduction | Part I
The current regime started with pretty impressive promises in 2014 with respect to employment (two core jobs a year). If realised, by March 2024, 40 crore new jobs should have materialised. Have they? If not, what is the reality?
The reversal of employment growth in non-farm sector and little progress in Skill India
The reality is the following. First, open unemployment was barely 2.1% in 2012 (the last year for which data was available before the BJP came to power). It had already nearly tripled to 6.1% in 2018 (National Survey Organization’s Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS), conducted annually since 2017-18), the highest rate in 45 years of India’s labour force surveys.
The total number of unemployed was one crore (2012) before the BJP came to power – but it had tripled by 2018 to three crore. The youth unemployment rates went through the roof for: those with middle school (class 8) education it rose from 4.5% to 13.7%; with secondary education (class 10) from 5.9% to 14.4%; those with higher secondary (class 12) education from 10.8% to 23.8%.
Educated unemployment worsened sharply. For graduates, the unemployment rate rose from 19.2% to 35.8%; and for post graduates from 21.3% 36.2%. All this did not deter the Government of India (GOI) from announcing a New Education Policy 2020 that higher education enrolment should rise from the prevailing 27% (for the relevant age cohort of 18-23 year olds) to nearly double to 50% by 2035. How are these new higher education graduates supposed to be employed, if the current crop of graduates face rising unemployment.
ls Report 2021 argues that nearly half of India’s graduates are unemployable, i.e. education quality in our colleges/universities has deteriorated sharply, most noticeably after the massification of higher education in the last two decades. Two developments underlie this phenomenon. First, the number of affiliated colleges (attached to universities, where the exam is conducted by the state or central university) has grown in India from around 10 000 in the early 2000s to 42 000 to 2020. The Universities (let alone the University Grants Commission) have limited capacity to regulate or monitor the activities of such colleges; yet they have grown at a rate of 4 new colleges per day, without a weekend break. Two, most of these colleges are private, set up by builders and contractors, in connivance with local politicians, who are often elected to high offices. If this pattern of private college growth, the quality is unlikely to improve, so unemployment may remain much the same – if non-farm jobs do not grow fast enough to absorb new entrants.
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